KXMEASLES-2531-2000
Will there be more than 2000 measles cases in 2025?
Above 2000
$0.23

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.19 $0.21 $0.23 4.0¢ 21.0%
NO $0.77 $0.79 $0.81 4.0¢ 79.0%
Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.19 0 $0.23 0
NO $0.77 0 $0.81 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.21 0.0 0
$0.79 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.190 – 0.230
Band Width0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.0
NO Edge (ticks)-2.0
Vig (bps/h)400

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.03
ΔSpread (¢) 3.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.03
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity4129540
24h Volume5364
Open Interest44235
OI Turnover (24h)0.12
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the number of measles in 2025 is above 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Above 10000
$0.03
Above 1700
$0.99
Above 2000
$0.23
Above 2500
$0.04
Above 3000
$0.04
Above 4000
$0.04
Above 5000
$0.04
Above 7000
$0.03

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-11-10T08:21:16.811268

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →