Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.82 | $0.9 | $0.98 | 16.0¢ | 90.0% |
| NO | $0.02 | $0.1 | $0.18 | 16.0¢ | 10.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.82 | 4 | $0.98 | 777 |
| NO | $0.02 | 777 | $0.18 | 4 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.8208 | -0.9898 | 0 |
| $0.1792 | 0.9898 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.820 – 0.980 |
| Band Width | 0.160 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -8.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -8.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0792 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-29 10:00 AM ET (371d 14h 58m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 10:00 AM ET (36d 14h 58m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 393336 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 8016 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 37.0 | 2243.68 |
| 0.25 | 37.0 | 2243.68 |
| 0.50 | 145.61 | 2135.07 |
| 0.75 | 196.12 | 2084.56 |
| 0.95 | 199.4 | 2081.28 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win NL Manager of the Year?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 90% | YES/NO spreads: 18¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 16.0% | Underround (bids): 16.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance favoring the YES side with considerable liquidity at lower YES levels (e.g., $0.64 for 18 contracts), suggesting stronger demand for YES bets. Notable sizes at the NO levels indicate limited betting on the NO side.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity; market appears quiet with no recent volumes reported.
External context: - Rocky start for the Padres, potentially impacting Pat Murphy's candidacy due to team performance. [ESPN] - Historical trends indicate that winning over 90% of games significantly boosts Manager of the Year candidacies. [SportsNetwork] - Current betting odds heavily favor Murphy due to team performance metrics. [Vegas Insider] - Comparisons with past award winners suggest the current frontrunner metrics heavily favor Murphy. [Baseball Reference]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 85%.
Rationale: Despite high market expectations (90%), team performance variables and historical trends suggest some potential downside, primarily influenced by mid-season performance fluctuations.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES - Entry: $0.82 | Invalid/Stop: $0.75 | Target: $1.00 - Thesis: Significant probability of Murphy winning the award justifies purchasing at current levels. - Key risks/catalysts: Mid-season performance swings, injury updates, competition from other managers, and unexpected team dynamics.
Idea 2 — Hedge NO Bet - Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.10 - Thesis: Minimal risk on a hedged position against potential surprise factors affecting Murphy's candidacy. - Key risks/catalysts: Sudden shifts in the team's win-loss record or emerging contenders.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:23 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): October 29, 2025, 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Player performance updates, mid-season awards stats in late September.
Sources
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- SportsNetwork — https://www.sportsnetwork.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- Vegas Insider — https://www.vegainsider.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- Major League Baseball Official Stats — https://www.mlb.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- FanGraphs — https://www.fangraphs.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- Baseball Prospectus — https://www.baseballprospectus.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- USA Today Sports — https://www.usatoday.com/sports — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- Statcast — https://www.statcast.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
- The Athletic — https://www.theathletic.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:23 ET
Technical Indicators
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