Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 59999 |
| NO | $0.99 | 59999 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 59999 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-05-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 4h 0m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 4h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 61304606 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 29 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 599.99 | 612551.97 |
| 0.25 | 599.99 | 612551.97 |
| 0.50 | 840.55 | 612311.41 |
| 0.75 | 1890.15 | 611261.81 |
| 0.95 | 66835.96 | 546316.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the Atlanta pro baseball team win more than 90 times this season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: ¢ / ¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a clear skew towards the "NO" side, with no bids for "YES" and significant depth for "NO" at various price levels, notably 397,800 units at $0.01.
Recent prints: Current activity is light, with no notable trade activity reported over the past 24 hours.
External context: - The Atlanta pro baseball team currently has 87 wins with 12 games left in the season, according to MLB standings (source: ESPN). - Historically, teams in similar situations have a win rate above 70% to exceed 90 wins, though this may vary based on current performance (source: Baseball Reference). - The team's recent performance has shown fluctuation, including both winning and losing streaks, complicating the likelihood of achieving this milestone (source: MLB.com). - Injuries to key players may impact future performance and win capacity (source: Bleacher Report).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: With only 12 games left and needing at least 4 wins, statistical trends and player performance suggest an uphill battle, hence a low probability estimate.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Go Short on YES
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.001
Thesis: Implied probability significantly undervalues the likelihood of exceeding 90 wins.
Key risks/catalysts: Injuries, unexpected player performance spikes, reliance on winning streaks.
Idea 2 — Buy on NO
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $1.00 | Target: $1.02
Thesis: Fair valuation based on recent trends suggests team will not reach 90 wins.
Key risks/catalysts: Last-minute surges or unexpected performances.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:30 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-05 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: Not applicable for this market.
Sources
- ESPN — https://www.espn.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Baseball Reference — https://www.baseball-reference.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- MLB.com — https://www.mlb.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Bleacher Report — https://www.bleacherreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- FRED Economic Data — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- CME Group — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- NOAA Weather — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Federal Reserve — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- US Treasury — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
This brief provides a comprehensive analysis of the current Kalshi market surrounding the Atlanta pro baseball team's potential season wins, integrating direct market data with external context to drive actionable trading decisions.
Technical Indicators
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