Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.23 | $0.52 | $0.8 | 57.0¢ | 51.5% |
| NO | $0.2 | $0.48 | $0.77 | 57.0¢ | 48.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.23 | 30 | $0.8 | 50 |
| NO | $0.2 | 50 | $0.77 | 30 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.4437 | -0.25 | 0 |
| $0.5563 | 0.25 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.230 – 0.800 |
| Band Width | 0.570 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -28.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -28.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 19 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0763 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-05-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 2h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 2h 29m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 6185288 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 472 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 408.05 | 62170.08 |
| 0.25 | 437.4 | 62130.68 |
| 0.50 | 437.4 | 62130.68 |
| 0.75 | 437.4 | 62130.68 |
| 0.95 | 1664.08 | 61297.3 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the Kansas City pro baseball team win more than 80 times this season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 51.5% | YES/NO spreads: 80¢ / 77¢ | Overround (asks): 57.0% | Underround (bids): 57.0%
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows substantial demand on both sides, although YES bids are significantly skewed towards lower prices, suggesting weaker confidence in a positive outcome at higher prices.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity observed.
External context: - Kansas City Royals currently hold a record of 45 wins, needing 36 more wins for the season's conclusion. - The team's performance has been below league expectations, with recent injuries affecting key players (source: MLB.com). - Historical team performance data shows the Royals have averaged 70 wins over the last five seasons (source: ESPN).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 45%
Rationale: Given the team's current performance trajectory and the need for consistent winning streaks, the odds of exceeding 80 wins appear low, aligning with historical performance trends.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: 0.77 - Invalid/Stop: 0.80 - Target: 0.70 - Thesis: Kansas City Royals are unlikely to reach 80 wins based on recent performance and injury analysis. - Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected player returns, turnaround in team performance, or favorable scheduling later in the season.
Idea 2 — Buy YES - Entry: 0.23 - Invalid/Stop: 0.20 - Target: 0.30 - Thesis: If the Royals regain form or have favorable matchups, the likelihood of reaching 80 wins could increase. - Key risks/catalysts: Continued underperformance, additional injuries, or tough remaining schedule.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:11
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-05 14:00
Known release windows: Regular performance metrics reported weekly throughout the season.
Sources
- Kansas City Royals Current Record — MLB.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Historical Performance Data — ESPN — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Injury Report — Rotoworld — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- League Win Trends — Baseball Reference — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Royals Season Overview — CBS Sports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Upcoming Opponent Schedule — MLB Schedule — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Key Player Stats — FanGraphs — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Win Probability Metrics — FiveThirtyEight — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- Team Predictions — The Ringer — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
- MLB Injury Updates — Yahoo Sports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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