Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 59999 |
| NO | $0.99 | 59999 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 59999 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-05-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 2h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-05 10:00 AM ET (12d 2h 29m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 61295118 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 599.99 | 612692.22 |
| 0.25 | 599.99 | 612692.22 |
| 0.50 | 756.67 | 612535.54 |
| 0.75 | 2030.4 | 611261.81 |
| 0.95 | 66976.21 | 546316.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will the Kansas City pro baseball team win more than 90 times this season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a significant imbalance, with No bids dominating at 99¢, particularly a large size at 397,800 units at the 1¢ ask. This indicates market skepticism on the team's performance exceeding 90 wins.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity detected; the market currently displays no liquidity with an open interest of 0.
External context: - The Kansas City baseball team has won an average of 75 games over the last season, a downward trend from a peak of 85 wins. - Current projections from major sports analytics sites indicate the team is expected to fall short of 90 wins, influenced by injuries and difficult schedule periods. [Source: ESPN] - Fan projections (e.g., FanGraphs) also suggest an average win tally of approximately 80 games, reinforcing bearish sentiment. [Source: FanGraphs]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%.
Rationale: Given the team's recent performance and external analyses projecting a decline, the very low implied probability reflects significant market skepticism regarding the likelihood of exceeding 90 wins.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 99¢ | Invalid/Stop: 70¢ | Target: 85¢
Thesis: Given high implied odds of the team failing to win 90 games, this NO position reflects market overconfidence.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected player performances, major trades, or changes in team management.
Idea 2 — Buy YES
Entry: 1¢ | Invalid/Stop: 0¢ | Target: 5¢
Thesis: If team momentum shifts (i.e., winning streak), this could cause a sharp rise in YES values.
Key risks/catalysts: An unexpected string of wins or a trading move that boosts team morale.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:11 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-10-05 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: No major data releases expected in the intervening period, but trade activity may ramp up closer to close time.
Sources
- ESPN — Link — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:11 ET
- FanGraphs — Link — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:11 ET
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