KXMODELHIGH-26-ANT
Will Claude be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?
:: Anthropic
$0.09
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | $0.06 | $0.09 | 6.0¢ | 6.0% |
| NO | $0.91 | $0.94 | $0.97 | 6.0¢ | 94.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | 9 | $0.09 | 211 |
| NO | $0.91 | 211 | $0.97 | 9 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0325 | -0.9182 | 309 |
| $0.9675 | 0.9182 | 611 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.030 – 0.090 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0275 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-02-26 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 11h 57m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 11h 57m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1405124 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1234 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 4.27 | 14523.96 |
| 0.25 | 210.2 | 14365.28 |
| 0.50 | 420.5 | 14107.73 |
| 0.75 | 420.5 | 14107.73 |
| 0.95 | 1406.23 | 13217.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T03:02:12.125244
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