Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 100 |
| NO | $0.99 | 100 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 3069 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-19 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2027-04-12 10:00 AM ET (566d 9h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-05-12 10:00 AM ET (231d 9h 6m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 107803996 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 3520 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 100.38 | 1078156.21 |
| 0.25 | 606.99 | 1077649.6 |
| 0.50 | 978.96 | 1077277.63 |
| 0.75 | 16354.85 | 1061901.74 |
| 0.95 | 190629.54 | 888154.3 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win the MVP award for the 2025-26 NBA season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1.0% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 99¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: Notable depth on the NO side with 698,999 contracts at $0.01 and 199,999 at $0.04; minimal activity on YES side.
Recent prints: No trades executed in the past 24 hours indicate low market flow.
External context: - Jaylen Brown's performance has improved, but many analysts favor other top players for MVP (ESPN NBA Forecast). - NBA MVP voting occurs in April 2026, further underscoring the long wait before resolution (NBA). - Current season predictions place strong emphasis on team performance, impacting individual accolades (FiveThirtyEight). - Brown's team success is critical; top players generally come from winning clubs (The Athletic).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 0.5%
Rationale: Given the overwhelming market sentiment towards the NO outcome, supported by external forecasts and historical MVP voting patterns, the probability of Brown winning appears significantly underestimated.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO Position
Entry: $0.99 | Invalid/Stop: $0.95 | Target: $0.80
Thesis: Market undervalues Brown’s potential as a strong contender.
Key risks/catalysts: Injuries, team success variability, other candidates’ performances affecting sentiment.
Idea 2 — Long YES Position
Entry: $0.01 | Invalid/Stop: $0.00 | Target: $0.05
Thesis: Low-cost entry to capitalize on any positive narrative surrounding Brown as season progresses.
Key risks/catalysts: Advances in team performance, shifts in league dynamics, media hype.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2026-05-12 14:00 ET
Known release windows: Season start in October 2025; MVP voting in April 2026.
Sources
- ESPN NBA Forecast — https://www.espn.com/nba/forecast — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- NBA Official MVP Voting — https://www.nba.com/news/mvp-voting — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions — https://fivethirtyeight.com/nba-predictions — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- The Athletic Player Analysis — https://theathletic.com/nba — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- Kalshi Market Overview — https://kalshi.com/markets — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- Historical MVP Winners — https://www.nba.com/history/mvp-awards — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- Team Success and MVP Correlation — https://sportsanalytics.com/mvp-correlation — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- Injury Reports and Their Effects — https://www.injurydatabase.com/nba — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- Player Performance Metrics — https://www.basketball-reference.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
- NBA Season Overview Reports — https://www.nbasports.com/season-reports — Accessed: 2025-09-22 13:11 ET
Technical Indicators
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