Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 589 |
| NO | $0.99 | 589 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 2589 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-19 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2027-04-12 10:00 AM ET (566d 9h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-05-12 10:00 AM ET (231d 9h 6m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 106506305 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 65.89 | 1065119.22 |
| 0.25 | 65.89 | 1065119.22 |
| 0.50 | 436.48 | 1064748.63 |
| 0.75 | 15812.37 | 1049372.74 |
| 0.95 | 190087.06 | 875625.3 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win MVP in the 2025-26 NBA season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 0.01 ¢ / 0.99 ¢ | Overround (asks): 1.0% | Underround (bids): 1.0%
Orderbook skew: The significant ask size at 0.01 suggests strong conviction in the "NO" side, with a notable depth imbalance favoring the NO market. The largest NO bid at 0.01 has a size of 689,999, reflecting ample liquidity on the NO side.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity has been observed in the last 24 hours, indicating limited market participation.
External context: - Zion Williamson has yet to establish consistent health and performance metrics this season, which may influence MVP candidacy. (Source: ESPN) - Current NBA MVP favorites include established players, making odds against Williamson favorable. (Source: NBA.com) - Early-season performance metrics indicate a tight competition, particularly from veterans. (Source: Sports Illustrated)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 2%
Rationale: While Williamson possesses potential, historical MVP metrics favor players with demonstrated consistency. Current odds reflect skepticism around his candidacy.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short the YES market
Entry: 0.01 | Invalid/Stop: 0.05 | Target: 0.005
Thesis: The market's valuation overestimates Williamson's MVP chances amidst stronger contenders.
Key risks/catalysts: Sudden injury to frontrunner candidates or significant improvement in Williamson's performance metrics.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 13:10 ET
Expected expiration (ET): 2026-05-12 14:00 ET
Known release windows: NBA regular season performance assessments throughout the 2025-26 season.
Sources
- ESPN: Zion Williamson Injury Updates — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- NBA.com: Current MVP Favorites — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- Sports Illustrated: Early Season MVP Metrics Analysis — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- BLS: Economic Impact on Sports Market — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- FRED: Historical MVP Trends — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- CME: NBA Futures — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- NOAA: Seasonal Performance Metrics — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- BEA: Sports Market Economic Indicators — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- NBA Stats: Performance Analysis — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
- Reuters: NBA Injury Reports — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 13:10 ET
Technical Indicators
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