KXNBERRECESSQ-Q1-2026
When will the next U.S. recession start?
$0.13
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.13 | 2.0¢ | 12.0% |
| NO | $0.87 | $0.88 | $0.89 | 2.0¢ | 88.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | 0 | $0.13 | 0 |
| NO | $0.87 | 0 | $0.89 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.12 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.88 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.110 – 0.130 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3085326 |
| 24h Volume | 500 |
| Open Interest | 4729 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.11 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T12:40:28.004425
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