KXNEWDRUGS-25-45

Will the FDA approve more than 45 novel drugs in 2025

$0.29

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.19	$0.24	$0.29	10.0¢	24.0%
NO	$0.71	$0.76	$0.81	10.0¢	76.0%

Overround (asks): 10.0% Underround (bids): 10.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.19	0	$0.29	0
NO	$0.71	0	$0.81	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.24	0.0	0
$0.76	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.190 – 0.290
Band Width	0.100

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-5.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-5.0
Vig (bps/h)	1000

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	-0.05
ΔSpread (¢)	1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	-0.15
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	—
Last Trade (Close)	— (—)
Expected Expiration	— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	4287043
24h Volume	455
Open Interest	2479
OI Turnover (24h)	0.18
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	0.0
0.25	0.0	0.0
0.50	0.0	0.0
0.75	0.0	0.0
0.95	0.0	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If above 45 novel FDA drugs are approved in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T15:26:41.009080

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