KXNEWROLEX-26JAN-NBIE
Who will be the next CEO of X?
$0.18

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.11 $0.14 $0.18 7.0¢ 14.5%
NO $0.82 $0.85 $0.89 7.0¢ 85.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.11 597 $0.18 99
NO $0.82 99 $0.89 597
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.17 0.7155 597
$0.83 -0.7155 699

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.110 – 0.180
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.02
ΔSpread (¢) 3.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.06
Micro Pull ($) 0.03
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-07-09 04:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (100d 8h 6m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (100d 8h 6m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity-32008
24h Volume757
Open Interest5481
OI Turnover (24h)0.14
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.054.012201.91
0.25357.51848.42
0.50357.51848.42
0.75357.51848.42
0.951448.9757.02
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Nikita Bier is confirmed as CEO for X before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T06:53:22.114833

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