KXNEXTDUTCHPM-25OCT29-HBON
Will Henri Bontenbal become Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 Dutch general election?
$0.06

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 1.0¢ 5.5%
NO $0.94 $0.94 $0.95 1.0¢ 94.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.05 0 $0.06 0
NO $0.94 0 $0.95 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.06 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0500.060
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)100

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity224961
24h Volume0
Open Interest4867
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister of the Netherlands as a result of government formation following the 2025 Dutch general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T12:44:43.710530

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