KXNGUARDCITY-25-PORT
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2025?
:: After Nov 3
$0.24
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.15 | $0.2 | $0.24 | 9.0¢ | 19.5% |
| NO | $0.76 | $0.81 | $0.85 | 9.0¢ | 80.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.15 | 0 | $0.24 | 0 |
| NO | $0.76 | 0 | $0.85 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.81 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.150 – 0.240 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1295407 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1034 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the National Guard is deployed to Portland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Deployment means National Guard members arrive in the location on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in the location, not merely assigned or in transit.
<p>The following constitutes deployment and resolves YES: Governor activates Guard with deployment to the location, Guard units arrive in the location on emergency orders, Federal activation placing Guard in the location, Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to the location, pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in the location, or any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed.</p>
<p>The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves NO: deployment announcements without actual arrival, Guard placed on standby/alert status only, units staged outside the location without entering, training exercises or routine drills, Guard members traveling through the location to another destination, planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment, off-duty Guard members acting as civilians, Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders, recruitment or community relations activities, or canceled deployments that never materialize.</p>
<p>Special provisions: At least one Guard member must physically arrive in the location. Deployment must be for operational purposes, not training. If deployment is announced then canceled before arrival, resolves NO. Presence for transit only doesn't count. Re-deployment of already-present units to new locations within the location counts only if they were not previously on deployment orders. Both Army National Guard and Air National Guard deployments count. Federal military (non-Guard) deployments do not count.</p>
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
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AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T16:54:25.407888
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