KXOSCARASPLAY-26-BUG
Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
Bugonia
$0.08

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 2.0¢ 7.0%
NO $0.92 $0.93 $0.94 2.0¢ 93.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.06 200 $0.08 43
NO $0.92 43 $0.94 200
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0765 0.6461 661
$0.9235 -0.6461 243

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.060 – 0.080
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0065
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 12h 8m)
Expected Expiration2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 12h 8m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity555062
24h Volume0
Open Interest39
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0525.094757.76
0.2586.534673.27
0.504165.19594.61
0.754482.8277.0
0.954660.899.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Bugonia has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:51:13.925123

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