KXOSCARASPLAY-26-HED
Will Hedda win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
Hedda
$0.05

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.05 $0.05 5.0¢ 4.88%
NO $0.95 $0.97 $1.0 5.0¢ 95.24%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.05 17
NO $0.95 17 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.05 0.0 0
$0.97 0.0 117

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.050
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.12
NO Edge (ticks)-4.88
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 12h 8m)
Expected Expiration2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 12h 8m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity65262
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.0652.62
0.2537.85614.77
0.50198.62454.0
0.75381.62271.0
0.95553.6299.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Hedda has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

Related Markets

Wicked: For Good
$0.05
Wake Up Dead Man
$0.05
Train Dreams
$0.05
Tie
$0.05
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
$0.05
Nuremberg
$0.05
Nouvelle Vague
$0.05
The Life of Chuck
$0.05
Is This Thing On?
$0.05
Frankenstein
$0.05
Ballad of a Small Player
$0.05
Bugonia
$0.08
No Other Choice
$0.09
Hamnet
$0.33
One Battle After Another
$0.69

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:51:07.491333

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →