KXOSCARCINE-26-TRA

Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the Oscars?

Train Dreams

$0.05

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.04	$0.04	$0.05	1.0¢	4.5%
NO	$0.95	$0.95	$0.96	1.0¢	95.5%

Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.04	0	$0.05	0
NO	$0.95	0	$0.96	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.04	0.0	0
$0.95	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.040 – 0.050
Band Width	0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)	-0.5
Vig (bps/h)	100

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	-0.05
ΔSpread (¢)	-8.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	-0.04
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	—
Last Trade (Close)	— (—)
Expected Expiration	— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	775197
24h Volume	50
Open Interest	1093
OI Turnover (24h)	0.05
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	0.0
0.25	0.0	0.0
0.50	0.0	0.0
0.75	0.0	0.0
0.95	0.0	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Train Dreams has won Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T19:36:17.279101

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