KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-2.99-2N
Will New York City experience population increase between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027?
$0.07
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | $0.04 | $0.07 | 5.0¢ | 4.5% |
| NO | $0.93 | $0.95 | $0.98 | 5.0¢ | 95.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | 0 | $0.07 | 0 |
| NO | $0.93 | 0 | $0.98 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.04 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.95 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.020 – 0.070 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 4975773 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 23 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If New York City experiences a population increase of between -2.99% to -2% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Population change is calculated as ((Final Period Population - Initial Period Population) / Initial Period Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T16:55:23.487315
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