KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-2.99-2N
Will New York City experience population increase between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027?
$0.07

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.04 $0.07 5.0¢ 4.5%
NO $0.93 $0.95 $0.98 5.0¢ 95.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 0 $0.07 0
NO $0.93 0 $0.98 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.04 0.0 0
$0.95 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0200.070
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)500

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity4975773
24h Volume0
Open Interest23
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If New York City experiences a population increase of between -2.99% to -2% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Population change is calculated as ((Final Period Population - Initial Period Population) / Initial Period Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T16:55:23.487315

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