KXPRESCHILE-25-JKAS
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
:: Republican Party
$0.69

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.67 $0.68 $0.69 2.0¢ 68.0%
NO $0.31 $0.32 $0.33 2.0¢ 32.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.67 342 $0.69 130
NO $0.31 130 $0.33 342
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6845 0.4492 1729
$0.3155 -0.4492 2403

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.670 – 0.690
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0045
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-02-26 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-05-22 11:00 AM ET (241d 13h 5m)
Expected Expiration2025-11-16 10:00 AM ET (54d 13h 5m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity886601
24h Volume596
Open Interest10711
OI Turnover (24h)0.06
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.054.05542.61
0.25265.745280.87
0.50265.745280.87
0.753798.641747.97
0.955055.11876.25
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If José Antonio Kast wins the Chilean presidency in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

:: Party for Democracy
$0.01
:: Liberal Party of Chile
$0.01
:: Christian Social Party
$0.01
:: Social Green Regionalist Federation
$0.01
:: National Libertarian Party
$0.02
:: Chilean Communist Party (Proletarian Action)
$0.02
:: Independent Democratic Union
$0.14
:: Communist party of Chile
$0.18
:: Party of the People
$0.99
:: Independent
$0.99
:: Independent
$0.99

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T01:54:59.776338

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