KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA
Who will win the next presidential election?
:: Democratic
$0.07

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 1.0¢ 6.5%
NO $0.93 $0.94 $0.94 1.0¢ 93.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.06 4826 $0.07 2000
NO $0.93 2000 $0.94 4826
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0671 0.414 43061
$0.9329 -0.414 83449

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.060 – 0.070
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0029
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-05-10 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2029-11-07 10:00 AM ET (1506d 14h 23m)
Expected Expiration2029-01-21 10:00 AM ET (1216d 14h 23m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity786032982
24h Volume1289
Open Interest136550
OI Turnover (24h)0.01
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.051651.937809934.95
0.2510440.787800611.55
0.5016994.847794032.74
0.7563230.967747796.62
0.951513203.06856082.58
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

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:: Republican
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:: Republican
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:: Democratic
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:: Democratic
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:: Democratic
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:: Republican
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:: Republican
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:: Democratic
$0.04
:: Democratic
$0.05
:: Democratic
$0.22
:: Republican
$0.33

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:36:26.689927

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