KXPUBLICSWIFTLIVELY-26JAN01
Will Blake Lively and Taylor Swift be seen in public before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.27
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.18 | $0.23 | $0.27 | 9.0¢ | 22.5% |
| NO | $0.73 | $0.78 | $0.82 | 9.0¢ | 77.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.18 | 0 | $0.27 | 0 |
| NO | $0.73 | 0 | $0.82 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.23 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.78 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.180 – 0.270 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 419031 |
| 24h Volume | 4 |
| Open Interest | 710 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.01 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Blake Lively and Taylor Swift has been seen together in public starting Sep 18, 2025 at 1:45pm and before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must be physically present (not virtual/holographic) and alive, appearing conscious and aware (not unconscious, comatose, or incapacitated). Qualifying public settings include: public spaces accessible to the general public (streets, parks, shops, restaurants), ticketed public events (concerts, sports events, conferences), official public appearances (government events, ceremonies, press conferences), and semi-public venues where public access is normal (hotels, airports, train stations). The following do NOT qualify: pre-recorded or archival footage, private events closed to the general public, medical facilities or private residences, virtual appearances (video calls, holograms, avatars), body doubles or impersonators, or posthumous footage. The sighting must be confirmed by Source Agencies including official government agencies, major news outlets, or the person's verified social media accounts.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T15:34:32.486155
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