KXSANCTION-26JAN01
Will the EU sanction Israel before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.11

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.07 $0.11 9.0¢ 6.5%
NO $0.89 $0.94 $0.98 9.0¢ 93.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 0 $0.11 0
NO $0.89 0 $0.98 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.07 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0200.110
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)900

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity623033
24h Volume0
Open Interest3533
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the EU officially announces or imposes new sanctions on Israel before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The sanctions announcement must be made by the sanctioning country's Head of Government, Foreign Minister, Treasury/Finance Minister, legislature, or their officially designated representatives through official government channels. Qualifying sanctions include asset freezes, trade embargoes, travel bans, arms embargoes, investment prohibitions, banking restrictions, technology transfer restrictions, sectoral sanctions, designation on official sanctions lists, prohibition of business transactions, or diplomatic sanctions with economic measures. The announcement must explicitly name the target entity and specify the type of sanctions to be imposed. Informal diplomatic protests, threats of potential sanctions, leaked information, or announcements by unauthorized personnel do not qualify. Technical updates to existing sanctions that do not expand scope to new targets also do not qualify. The market resolves based on the announcement, regardless of implementation timeline or whether sanctions are later reversed.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T22:16:58.007461

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