KXSCOTUSN-25DEC31
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2025?
$0.03
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.03 | 1.0¢ | 2.5% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.97 | $0.98 | 1.0¢ | 97.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | 0 | $0.03 | 0 |
| NO | $0.97 | 0 | $0.98 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.03 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.97 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.020 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 816149 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 20686 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Please see SCOTUS in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions. Nominations to the position of Associate Justice or Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States that are confirmed by the Senate between Issuance and December 31, 2024 according to Congress.gov.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T23:43:55.684192
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