KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?
$0.7

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.65 $0.68 $0.7 5.0¢ 67.5%
NO $0.3 $0.33 $0.35 5.0¢ 32.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.65 208 $0.7 100
NO $0.3 100 $0.35 208
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6838 0.3506 1208
$0.3162 -0.3506 681

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.650 – 0.700
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0038
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-11-09 02:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2029-01-20 10:00 AM ET (1214d 10h 9m)
Expected Expiration2029-01-20 10:00 AM ET (1214d 10h 9m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity274213665
24h Volume0
Open Interest1137
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05794.442672208.37
0.251060.082671942.73
0.501061.282671942.03
0.754399.992669352.82
0.9530451.812660601.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 6 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
If there are not nine justices at the time of Expiration, then that strike will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:50:35.474385

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