KXSCOURT-29-SKD
Will Stuart Kyle Duncan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
$0.03
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.03 | 1.0¢ | 2.5% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.97 | $0.98 | 1.0¢ | 97.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | 359 | $0.03 | 666 |
| NO | $0.97 | 666 | $0.98 | 359 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0235 | -0.2995 | 1958 |
| $0.9765 | 0.2995 | 3293 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.020 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0065 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-11-07 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2029-01-20 11:59 PM ET (1217d 5h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2029-01-21 10:00 AM ET (1217d 15h 7m) |
Early Close: This market will close and expire early following a person being confirmed as a Supreme Court justice.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 110889064 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 2185 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 58.23 | 1106928.95 |
| 0.25 | 213.23 | 1106773.95 |
| 0.50 | 214.21 | 1106772.97 |
| 0.75 | 532.36 | 1106454.82 |
| 0.95 | 47185.23 | 1059801.95 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Stuart Kyle Duncan is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T23:52:54.804961
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