KXSENATEILD-26-JSTR
Wil Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Illinois?
$0.49

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.38 $0.43 $0.49 11.0¢ 43.5%
NO $0.51 $0.56 $0.62 11.0¢ 56.5%
Overround (asks): 11.0% Underround (bids): 11.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.38 181 $0.49 37
NO $0.51 37 $0.62 181
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.4713 0.6606 181
$0.5287 -0.6606 37

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.380 – 0.490
Band Width0.110

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.5
NO Edge (ticks)-5.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0413
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-04-01 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 21m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 14h 21m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity1037389
24h Volume0
Open Interest6126
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0551.146610.5
0.25121.516590.13
0.50622.426089.22
0.753253.593562.55
0.955676.64985.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Juliana Stratton wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Illinois Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:38:10.421672

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