KXSENATEMND-26-ACRA
Wil Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.29

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.23 $0.26 $0.29 6.0¢ 26.0%
NO $0.71 $0.74 $0.77 6.0¢ 74.0%
Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.23 419 $0.29 170
NO $0.71 170 $0.77 419
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2727 0.4228 419
$0.7273 -0.4228 570

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.230 – 0.290
Band Width0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)-3.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0127
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-03-28 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 19h 3m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (406d 19h 3m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity362151
24h Volume0
Open Interest1622
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0510.062824.52
0.25237.012597.57
0.50731.912102.67
0.751687.561447.02
0.952438.58776.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Angie Craig wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Wil Steve Simon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Jacob Frey be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Ilhan Omar be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil David Wellstone be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Betty McCollum be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Melissa Hortman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Keith Ellison be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.02
Wil Melisa López Franzen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.03
Wil Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
$0.72

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-09-22T19:56:25.911098

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →