KXSENATEOHSR-26-FLR
Wil Frank LaRose be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Ohio?
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 1.0¢ 1.5%
NO $0.98 $0.98 $0.99 1.0¢ 98.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 50 $0.02 102
NO $0.98 102 $0.99 50
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0133 -0.3421 50
$0.9867 0.3421 2102

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.020
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0033
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-12-04 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (407d 16h 6m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (407d 16h 6m)
Early Close: This market will close after Frank LaRose wins the party's nomination.

Book & Activity

Liquidity686343
24h Volume0
Open Interest50
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0542.546691.11
0.25333.046400.61
0.501163.655570.0
0.753023.653710.0
0.954763.651970.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Frank LaRose wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Ohio Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T22:53:57.687094

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