KXSNAPELECTIONJPN-26JAN01
Will Japan announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.11

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.07 $0.11 9.0¢ 6.5%
NO $0.89 $0.94 $0.98 9.0¢ 93.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 0 $0.11 0
NO $0.89 0 $0.98 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.07 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0200.110
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)900

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity166710
24h Volume0
Open Interest1150
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Japan officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date. The election must be called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally required date. The announcement itself must occur before the deadline at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled. Examples that qualify include: Prime Minister dissolving parliament for early elections, President resigning triggering constitutionally-mandated early elections, votes of no confidence requiring new elections, or governing coalition collapse leading to early elections. Regional or local elections do not qualify - only national elections for the legislature or head of government count. If an announcement is later withdrawn or ruled invalid before expiration, the market resolves to No. Snap elections announced before market issuance but held after issuance do not qualify.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T06:56:39.086293

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