KXSOLTPS-26JAN01-3800
Will Solana achieve above 3800 TPS before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.18
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.09 | $0.14 | $0.18 | 9.0¢ | 13.5% |
| NO | $0.82 | $0.86 | $0.91 | 9.0¢ | 86.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.09 | 0 | $0.18 | 0 |
| NO | $0.82 | 0 | $0.91 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.14 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.86 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.090 – 0.180 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1001562 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 639 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Solana's TPS is above 3800 TPS at any point before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
TPS (Transactions Per Second) is measured daily on the Solana blockchain, excluding consensus vote transactions. Only user-initiated transactions are counted toward the TPS metric. The measurement checks if Solana reaches the specified TPS threshold at any point after market issuance and before the deadline date. For the "above" operator, TPS must strictly exceed the threshold value. For the "below" operator, TPS must remain strictly less than the threshold throughout the entire period. The primary source is Solscan.io, with fallback to Solana Explorer (explorer.solana.com), the Solana Foundation, Solana dashboards, and official Solana RPC endpoints in that order. The market resolves to Yes as soon as the TPS criterion is met for "above" markets, while "below" markets only resolve after the deadline if TPS never exceeded the threshold.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T04:18:11.290578
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