KXSPOTIFY3BILLION-25DEC31-TOL
Will Thinking out Loud hit 3 Billion Spotify streams in 2025?
:: Ed Sheeran
$0.37

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.27 $0.32 $0.37 10.0¢ 32.0%
NO $0.63 $0.68 $0.73 10.0¢ 68.0%
Overround (asks): 10.0% Underround (bids): 10.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.27 0 $0.37 0
NO $0.63 0 $0.73 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.32 0.0 0
$0.68 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.270 – 0.370
Band Width0.100

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.0
NO Edge (ticks)-5.0
Vig (bps/h)1000

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.08
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.02
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity70442
24h Volume686
Open Interest3036
OI Turnover (24h)0.23
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Thinking out Loud has above 3 Billion total streams on Spotify by Dec 31, 2025 at 10 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Total stream count will be determined using the Spotify desktop app at 10 AM ET, based on the exact number displayed at that time. Any updates or changes after 10 AM ET will NOT be considered. The song can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/track/34gCuhDGsG4bRPIf9bb02f

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T05:36:24.589124

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