KXSPOTIFYSONG-25-BRU
Will Bruno Mars release a song this yearE?
$0.39
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.33 | $0.36 | $0.39 | 6.0¢ | 36.0% |
| NO | $0.61 | $0.64 | $0.67 | 6.0¢ | 64.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.33 | 0 | $0.39 | 0 |
| NO | $0.61 | 0 | $0.67 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.36 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.64 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.330 – 0.390 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 600 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 218601 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 848 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Bruno Mars releases a song on Spotify after Issuance (March 20, 2025) and before Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
“New song” refers to a track that has not been previously released in any form. Remixes count as new songs if they are newly released and appear under the artist’s Spotify discography. However, live versions of already released songs do not qualify as new songs, even if they appear on a newly released album. For example, BTS’s Permission to Dance On Stage live album, which compiles live performances of previously released songs, would not satisfy the payout criterion.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T12:47:41.585978
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