KXSTARSHIPSPACE-25-5.0
Will between 4 to 6 Starship launches reach space in 2025?
$0.98
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.91 | $0.94 | $0.98 | 7.0¢ | 94.5% |
| NO | $0.02 | $0.06 | $0.09 | 7.0¢ | 5.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.91 | 0 | $0.98 | 0 |
| NO | $0.02 | 0 | $0.09 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.94 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.06 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.910 – 0.980 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 700 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 4447934 |
| 24h Volume | 35 |
| Open Interest | 9665 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If between 4 to 6 Starship launches reach Space in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to <count> separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in <period> the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, <count> will be 2).
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T02:44:35.786936
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