KXSTOPWORK-26-DOE
Will Trump and DOGE order Department of Education to stop working?
$0.15

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.13 $0.14 $0.15 2.0¢ 14.0%
NO $0.85 $0.86 $0.87 2.0¢ 86.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.13 0 $0.15 0
NO $0.85 0 $0.87 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.14 0.0 0
$0.86 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1300.150
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)200

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity4442860
24h Volume20
Open Interest16454
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the Department of Education is ordered to stop work before Jan 1, 2026 by its leadership or the White House, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The directive must suspend, pause, or cease the agency's normal work as a whole. This includes: instructions that require employees en masse to not report to the physical office (e.g. "the office is closed" or "access is denied"), where such closure is meant to stop operations rather than merely shifting them to a remote setting; directives that en masse order employees to stop, pause, or suspend all work-related duties—such as halting its regulatory, enforcement, or administrative functions—even if exceptions exist for a small number of essential roles; and orders that effectively place the agency in a state of operational pause by instituting widespread furloughs or firings. <p>If a directive specifies limited closures with narrow exemptions (e.g. only for a specific department), it qualifies only if those exemptions are strictly defined and do not allow the agency's core functions to continue normally. If the directive includes waivers for certain tasks, the order qualifies provided the waivers are limited in scope and do not cover the agency's primary, core, or most functions. If a directive exempts a small cadre of essential staff while halting nearly all routine operations, the order qualifies as long as the exemptions do not enable the agency to perform its principal functions. Waivers that allow limited back-office tasks or non-critical work to resume will not disqualify the order if the overall operational capacity remains suspended.</p> <p>If the agency is a sub-agency within a larger organization and a qualifying directive is issued to the parent agency covering operational suspension, then that directive is deemed to apply to the sub-agency as well.</p>

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-11T23:41:58.583003

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