KXSUPERBOWLAD-SB2026-NVIDIA
Will NVIDIA run an ad during the Big Game 2026?
$0.23
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.18 | $0.2 | $0.23 | 5.0¢ | 20.5% |
| NO | $0.77 | $0.8 | $0.82 | 5.0¢ | 79.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.18 | 0 | $0.23 | 0 |
| NO | $0.77 | 0 | $0.82 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.8 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.180 – 0.230 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.03 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -4.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.04 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 11577703 |
| 24h Volume | 100 |
| Open Interest | 421 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.24 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If NVIDIA airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A qualifying advertisement includes any commercial featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., "This halftime show brought to you by..."), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime if any) ends. Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-11-11T04:19:34.793424
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →