KXSUPPORTPARTYMUSKD-25
Will Elon Musk support a Democrat for office this year?
$0.09
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | $0.09 | $0.09 | 1.0¢ | 8.5% |
| NO | $0.91 | $0.92 | $0.92 | 1.0¢ | 91.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | 0 | $0.09 | 0 |
| NO | $0.91 | 0 | $0.92 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.09 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.92 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.080 – 0.090 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 798671 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 10301 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Elon Musk announces support for any Democratic candidate before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For purposes of this Contract, "support" is defined as ANY of the following actions: making a public statement (written, verbal, or via social media) explicitly endorsing, backing, or expressing support for a specific Democratic candidate for any elected office (emojis or other positive indicators are not sufficient to resolve this to Yes); making any monetary contribution (including in-kind contributions) to a Democratic candidate's campaign, political action committee, or affiliated organization, as reported by any Source Agencies; participating in campaign activities for a Democratic candidate including speaking at a campaign rally, fundraiser, or official campaign event, appearing in campaign advertisements or promotional materials, serving in an official campaign role (e.g., campaign chair, advisor, surrogate), or hosting or co-hosting a fundraising event; or publicly stating an intention to vote for a specific Democratic candidate.
<p>Actions that do NOT constitute "support" for purposes of this Contract include: merely attending a public event where a Democratic candidate is present without speaking or being featured, praising a Democratic candidate's past actions or policies without endorsing their candidacy, following, liking, or sharing social media content without additional commentary expressing support, making general positive statements about Democratic without referencing specific candidates, or private expressions of support not made public before Jan 1, 2026.</p>
<p>If Elon Musk announces support and subsequently withdraws or reverses that support before Jan 1, 2026, the market will still resolve to Yes based on the initial announcement or action of support.</p>
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T02:41:42.290060
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