KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JAN01-14
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China (PRC) imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jan 1, 2026?
$0.13
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | $0.1 | $0.13 | 5.0¢ | 10.5% |
| NO | $0.87 | $0.9 | $0.92 | 5.0¢ | 89.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | 0 | $0.13 | 0 |
| NO | $0.87 | 0 | $0.92 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.9 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.080 – 0.130 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 501644 |
| 24h Volume | 51 |
| Open Interest | 18571 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the general import tariff rate on imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC) into the United States on Jan 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the highest rate in effect determines the resolution.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T22:27:17.300511
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