KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-1000
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.69

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.61 $0.65 $0.69 8.0¢ 65.0%
NO $0.31 $0.35 $0.39 8.0¢ 35.0%
Overround (asks): 8.0% Underround (bids): 8.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.61 46 $0.69 11
NO $0.31 11 $0.39 46
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6746 0.614 46
$0.3254 -0.614 11

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.610 – 0.690
Band Width0.080

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.0
NO Edge (ticks)-4.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0246
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-13 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-01-01 10:00 AM ET (464d 13h 33m)
Expected Expiration2027-01-01 10:00 AM ET (464d 13h 33m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity408114
24h Volume0
Open Interest1209
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0550.01601.86
0.25110.01501.86
0.50110.01501.86
0.75737.95873.91
0.951116.86495.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Tesla Inc reports above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced in Any Quarter before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:26:10.131900

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