KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-5000
Will Tesla Inc report above 5000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.46

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.37 $0.41 $0.46 9.0¢ 41.5%
NO $0.54 $0.58 $0.63 9.0¢ 58.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.37 43 $0.46 29
NO $0.54 29 $0.63 43
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.4238 0.1944 43
$0.5763 -0.1944 29

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.370 – 0.460
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0138
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-13 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-01-01 10:00 AM ET (464d 12h 4m)
Expected Expiration2027-01-01 10:00 AM ET (464d 12h 4m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity350730
24h Volume7
Open Interest866
OI Turnover (24h)0.01
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.055.02325.73
0.2553.242277.49
0.50414.492016.24
0.75421.511909.22
0.951340.731465.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Tesla Inc reports above 5000 Semi Trucks Produced in Any Quarter before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Will Tesla Inc report above 25000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.12
Will Tesla Inc report above 20000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.16
Will Tesla Inc report above 15000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.22
Will Tesla Inc report above 10000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.28
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.69
Will Tesla Inc report above 0 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
$0.77

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:55:24.726993

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →