KXTOPAI-26-JAN01-AL
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2026?
$0.06

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 2.0¢ 5.0%
NO $0.94 $0.95 $0.96 2.0¢ 95.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.04 311 $0.06 723
NO $0.94 723 $0.96 311
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.046 -0.3985 1611
$0.954 0.3985 1736

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.040 – 0.060
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.004
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-11-05 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 18h 37m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-02 10:00 AM ET (100d 18h 37m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity2342206
24h Volume0
Open Interest7067
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0540.4422104.6
0.25691.5921539.95
0.50692.0921453.45
0.75986.2521158.79
0.953199.318945.74
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T20:22:08.670769

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