KXTRAVISKELCEWEDDING-30JAN01-ARI
Will Aric Jones be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?
$0.82
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.72 | $0.77 | $0.82 | 10.0¢ | 77.0% |
| NO | $0.18 | $0.23 | $0.28 | 10.0¢ | 23.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.72 | 0 | $0.82 | 0 |
| NO | $0.18 | 0 | $0.28 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.77 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.23 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.720 – 0.820 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1000 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 344233 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 6 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Aric Jones served as Groomsman at the wedding ceremony of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift that occurred before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must serve in the specified role at the actual wedding ceremony, not merely at the rehearsal, reception, or other wedding events. If the person is listed in the wedding program or announced as having the role but does not attend or participate, the market resolves to No. If the person serves as a substitute or replacement in the role during the ceremony itself, the market resolves to Yes. If the couple has multiple ceremonies (religious and civil), the person must serve in the role in at least one ceremony. If the wedding is cancelled or indefinitely postponed beyond the date, the market resolves to No for all strikes. If the couple has only a legal marriage without any ceremony involving a wedding party, the market resolves to No. Resolution is based on official wedding announcements, wedding programs, ceremony materials, and reporting from major media outlets including The New York Times, People Magazine, Vogue, official social media accounts, and verified photography or videography from the wedding.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
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🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T14:11:47.907842
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