KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT01-CRA
Will Trump say "Cracker Barrel" before Oct 1, 2025?
$0.13

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.08 $0.1 $0.13 5.0¢ 10.5%
NO $0.87 $0.9 $0.92 5.0¢ 89.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.08 13 $0.13 2
NO $0.87 2 $0.92 13
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.1233 0.7333 746
$0.8767 -0.7333 59

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0800.130
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.02
Micro Pull ($) 0.0233
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-05 02:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-01 10:00 AM ET (9d 17h 48m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-01 10:00 AM ET (9d 17h 48m)
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.

Book & Activity

Liquidity362120
24h Volume203
Open Interest3049
OI Turnover (24h)0.07
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0544.171844.11
0.2577.81785.48
0.50379.051544.23
0.75379.051484.23
0.95384.231479.05
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Cracker Barrel, or a plural or possessive form of Cracker Barrel, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included (e.g., "immigrant" includes "immigrants" and "immigrant's"), but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are not included. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. If the word must be said a minimum number of times, all instances must occur after market issuance.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T20:11:29.011795

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