KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT01-ELO
Will Trump say "Elon / Musk" before Oct 1, 2025?
$0.49
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | $0.33 | $0.49 | 33.0¢ | 32.5% |
| NO | $0.51 | $0.68 | $0.84 | 33.0¢ | 67.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | 238 | $0.49 | 273 |
| NO | $0.51 | 273 | $0.84 | 238 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3137 | -0.0685 | 0 |
| $0.6863 | 0.0685 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.160 – 0.490 |
| Band Width | 0.330 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -16.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -16.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 14 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.04 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 28.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.23 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0163 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-05 02:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-01 10:00 AM ET (9d 16h 23m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-01 10:00 AM ET (9d 16h 23m) |
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 34872 |
| 24h Volume | 276 |
| Open Interest | 2564 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.11 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 720.31 |
| 0.25 | 38.08 | 682.23 |
| 0.50 | 221.85 | 548.46 |
| 0.75 | 503.37 | 216.94 |
| 0.95 | 522.31 | 198.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Elon / Musk, or a plural or possessive form of Elon / Musk, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included (e.g., "immigrant" includes "immigrants" and "immigrant's"), but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are not included. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. If the word must be said a minimum number of times, all instances must occur after market issuance.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T21:36:04.295244
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