KXU3-25SEP-T4.3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?
4.3%
$0.53

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.51 $0.52 $0.53 2.0¢ 52.0%
NO $0.47 $0.48 $0.49 2.0¢ 48.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.51 65 $0.53 22000
NO $0.47 22000 $0.49 65
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.5101 -0.9941 23271
$0.4899 0.9941 22562

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.510 – 0.530
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0099
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-03 08:29 AM ET (11d 14h 49m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-03 10:00 AM ET (11d 16h 20m)
Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity19911934
24h Volume117
Open Interest14582
OI Turnover (24h)0.01
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.051371.0122515.94
0.259422.04118464.9
0.5022936.99100312.45
0.7538728.4484158.5
0.9571357.9451529.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in September 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T21:39:42.851123

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