KXU3-25SEP-T4.4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in September?
4.4%
$0.21

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.2 $0.2 $0.21 1.0¢ 20.5%
NO $0.79 $0.8 $0.8 1.0¢ 79.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.2 20000 $0.21 987
NO $0.79 987 $0.8 20000
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2095 0.9059 22000
$0.7905 -0.9059 25987

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.200 – 0.210
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.01
Micro Pull ($) 0.0095
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-17 12:45 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-03 08:29 AM ET (11d 13h 44m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-03 10:00 AM ET (11d 15h 15m)
Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity16282624
24h Volume33
Open Interest3331
OI Turnover (24h)0.01
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05221.68133081.14
0.2511251.26127010.96
0.5022779.12110483.1
0.7548133.2285129.0
0.9581333.2251929.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in September 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T22:44:46.451752

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