KXVOTEPERCENTMAMDANI-25NOV04-14
Will Zohran Mamdani receive between 0% and 29.99% of the popular vote in New York City?
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 1.98%
NO $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.04%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.02 442
NO $0.98 442 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.02 0.0 0
$0.99 0.0 2842

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0000.020
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.02
NO Edge (ticks)-1.98
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-11 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-04 10:00 AM ET (406d 22h 14m)
Expected Expiration2025-11-04 10:00 AM ET (41d 22h 14m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity753119
24h Volume0
Open Interest635
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0556.847474.35
0.25370.847160.35
0.501772.145759.05
0.753236.144295.05
0.955191.192340.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election is 0% to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T16:45:56.045085

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