KXVOTEPERCENTMAMDANI-25NOV04-54
Will Zohran Mamdani receive between 50% and 59.99% of the popular vote in New York City?
$0.51
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.48 | $0.49 | $0.51 | 3.0¢ | 49.5% |
| NO | $0.49 | $0.51 | $0.52 | 3.0¢ | 50.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.48 | 937 | $0.51 | 215 |
| NO | $0.49 | 215 | $0.52 | 937 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.5044 | 0.6267 | 2605 |
| $0.4956 | -0.6267 | 1417 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.480 – 0.510 |
| Band Width | 0.030 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0144 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-11 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-11-04 10:00 AM ET (406d 20h 24m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-11-04 10:00 AM ET (41d 20h 24m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2980388 |
| 24h Volume | 88 |
| Open Interest | 8804 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.01 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 60.0 | 18873.94 |
| 0.25 | 2556.8 | 18377.14 |
| 0.50 | 7905.53 | 11028.41 |
| 0.75 | 15372.58 | 4461.36 |
| 0.95 | 17745.94 | 2328.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election is 50% to 59.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:35:03.516003
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