KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-ZLEJ
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
$0.15
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | $0.1 | $0.15 | 9.0¢ | 10.5% |
| NO | $0.85 | $0.9 | $0.94 | 9.0¢ | 89.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | 0 | $0.15 | 0 |
| NO | $0.85 | 0 | $0.94 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.9 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.060 – 0.150 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 305434 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Zhao Leji is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T19:54:32.900631
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