MOON-26DEC31
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2027?
Before 2027
$0.05

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.04 $0.05 3.0¢ 3.5%
NO $0.95 $0.96 $0.98 3.0¢ 96.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 467 $0.05 5
NO $0.95 5 $0.98 467
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.0497 0.9788 915
$0.9503 -0.9788 6367

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.020 – 0.050
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0097
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-01-23 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET (465d 11h 50m)
Expected Expiration2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET (465d 11h 50m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity6682544
24h Volume0
Open Interest5049
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0513.8265968.33
0.251056.8764925.28
0.501160.8364821.32
0.751186.4364795.72
0.951346.0564731.1
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Before 2026
$0.01
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2028?
$0.13

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-22T17:08:38.140528

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