KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-26-POL
Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
$0.99

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.9 $0.94 $0.99 9.0¢ 94.5%
NO $0.01 $0.06 $0.1 9.0¢ 5.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.9 25 $0.99 799
NO $0.01 799 $0.1 25
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.9027 -0.9393 25
$0.0973 0.9393 799

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.9000.990
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($) -0.0373
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-18 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-05-13 11:59 PM ET (232d 0h 58m)
Expected Expiration2026-05-14 10:00 AM ET (232d 10h 59m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity174740
24h Volume0
Open Interest1
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0512.01218.62
0.2512.01218.62
0.50243.11987.51
0.75243.11987.51
0.95439.61791.01
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Poland has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
To qualify as participation, the country/broadcaster must be confirmed by the EBU or national broadcaster to represent a country AND must perform their entry as part of the competition (either in a Semi-Final or Grand Final). The performance must be a numbered competition entry eligible for voting. Opening acts, interval acts, or other non-competitive performances do not count. Markets resolve to Yes even if the participant is later disqualified or penalized, as long as they performed. Withdrawal before performance (voluntary or involuntary) results in No resolution. Mere inclusion on the participant list without actual performance does not qualify.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T03:00:21.371521

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