KXFEDDECISION-25OCT-C25
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2025 meeting?
Cut 25bps
$0.83
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.82 | $0.82 | $0.83 | 1.0¢ | 82.5% |
| NO | $0.17 | $0.17 | $0.18 | 1.0¢ | 17.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.82 | 10586 | $0.83 | 10344 |
| NO | $0.17 | 10344 | $0.18 | 10586 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.8251 | 0.0116 | 188175 |
| $0.1749 | -0.0116 | 286349 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.820 – 0.830 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0051 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-05 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-29 01:59 PM ET (35d 23h 25m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 02:05 PM ET (35d 23h 31m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 580302766 |
| 24h Volume | 75078 |
| Open Interest | 540821 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.14 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 50551.0 | 2456382.35 |
| 0.25 | 53130.66 | 2453502.69 |
| 0.50 | 53130.92 | 2453502.43 |
| 0.75 | 59100.91 | 2447532.44 |
| 0.95 | 596510.38 | 2007022.97 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:33:01.312838
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